New Listener Group Poll Shows Tight Democratic Primary in Florida’s 20th Congressional District
Palm Coast, FL — March 5, 2026 — A new poll conducted by Listener Group of 400 likely Democratic primary voters in Florida’s 20th Congressional District finds a competitive race at the top of the field, with Elijah Manley leading in both the standard and contingency ballot scenarios.
The survey was conducted among 400 likely Democratic primary voters. The results demonstrate a closely contested contest with a significant share of voters still undecided as the nomination race continues to take shape.
Democratic Primary (Multi-Candidate Ballot)
When asked whom they would support in the Democratic primary with all major candidates on the ballot, voters responded as follows:
- Elijah Manley — 35%
- Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick — 31%
- Dale Holness — 13%
- Luther “Uncle Luke” Campbell — 1%
- Rudy Moise — 1%
- Undecided — 19%
These findings indicate a narrow lead for Manley, with more than one-in-five voters either backing another candidate or still undecided.
Contingency Ballot (No Incumbent)
In a hypothetical contingency ballot excluding the incumbent, voters’ preferences shift slightly:
- Elijah Manley — 47%
- Dale Holness — 34%
- Luther “Uncle Luke” Campbell — 2%
- Rudy Moise — 1%
- Undecided — 16%
In this scenario, Manley expands his share of support, while Holness consolidates a significant portion of the remaining vote, and the undecided share shrinks modestly.
Key Takeaways
• The Democratic primary field remains competitive, with Manley holding a consistent lead across ballot configurations.
• A relatively large segment of voters remains undecided on the standard ballot, indicating potential volatility as the campaign progresses.
• In contingency testing without an incumbent, Manley’s support solidifies above 45%.
Methodology
This survey was conducted by Listener Group between February 24-28, 2026 with an MOE of +/- 3.5% among 400 likely Democratic primary voters in Florida’s 20thCongressional District. The sample reflects registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters eligible to participate in the primary election. Results are presented as reported from the respondent pool.
About Listener Group
Listener Group, a division of Palafox Productions and Promotions, Inc, operates public opinion research specializing in political polling and audience insights. The organization conducts surveys to gauge voter sentiment across key electoral contests and demographic segments for the past 25 years.
Media Contact:
Greg Fink, CEO
Palafox Productions
info@palafoxproductions.com
(386) 569-7028