Listener Group/ Political Matrix Studies

Palm Coast, FL — February 6, 2026 — A new poll conducted by Listener Group in partnership with Political Matrix News of 300 likely voters in Florida’s 20th Congressional District finds a highly competitive race in the Democratic primary, with community advocate Elijah Manley narrowly leading incumbent Congresswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick in multiple ballot tests.

The survey was conducted among 300 likely primary voters in Florida’s 20th Congressional District with a margin of error of ±3%. At the time of the poll, incumbent Congresswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick was under indictment.

Multi-Candidate Ballot Test (With Incumbent in Race): When voters were asked who they would support in a four-way primary including the incumbent, results were as follows:

• Elijah Manley – 38%
• Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (Incumbent) – 35%
• Dale Holness – 10%
• Undecided – 13%

These findings indicate a tight contest at the top of the field, with a significant portion of voters still undecided.

Contingency Ballot Test (Without Incumbent): In a scenario where the incumbent is removed from the ballot prior to the primary election, voters were asked to choose between the remaining candidates:

• Elijah Manley – 45%
• Dale Holness – 33%
• Undecided – 22%

This scenario shows Manley with a clear advantage in a two-candidate field.

Head-to-Head Matchup: In a direct head-to-head matchup between Elijah Manley and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick:

• Elijah Manley – 40%
• Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick – 38%
• Undecided – 22%

The head-to-head results show Manley holding a narrow lead within the margin of error, with a sizable share of voters still making up their minds.

Candidate Favorability: Voters were asked whether they hold a favorable or unfavorable view of each candidate, or have no opinion.

• Elijah Manley:
  • Favorable – 42%
  • Unfavorable – 12%
  • No opinion / Undecided – 46%
• Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (Incumbent):
  • Favorable – 20%
  • Unfavorable – 50%
  • No opinion / Undecided – 30%
• Dale Holness:
  • Favorable – 25%
  • Unfavorable – 40%
  • No opinion / Undecided – 35%

Accountability Question: Resign or Run for Re-Election?

Voters were asked: “Do you think Congresswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick should run for re-election, or should she resign as a result of her indictment?”

• Should resign – 70%
• Should run for re-election – 22%
• Undecided / No opinion – 8%

This finding suggests significant voter concern regarding the incumbent’s legal situation and its impact on representation in Florida’s 20th Congressional District.

Gender Cross-Tabs: The poll sample consisted of 52% women and 48% men. Key gender-based trends show competitive support across both groups:

• Women Voters (52% of sample):
  • Manley and Cherfilus-McCormick perform closely, with no candidate consolidating a dominant majority.
  • Women make up a disproportionate share of undecided voters, signaling that late movement could decide the outcome.
• Men Voters (48% of sample):
  • Manley holds a modest edge among male voters in both the multi-candidate and head-to-head ballot tests.
  • Support for Holness is slightly stronger among men than women.

Methodology: This survey was conducted by Listener Group in partnership with Political Matrix News, both divisions of Palafox Productions, among 300 likely voters in Florida’s 20th Congressional District. The margin of error is ±3%. Respondents were contacted via mixed-mode outreach. Results reflect likely Democratic primary voters.

About Palafox Productions: Listener Group and Political Matrix News are both divisions of Palafox Productions. Palafox Productions is a media and research company focused on political analysis, audience research, and digital media production.

Media Contact:
Greg Fink, CEO
Palafox Productions
info@palafoxproductions.com
(386) 569-7028