Palm Coast, FL — March 5, 2026 — A new Listener Group survey of 600 likely general election voters in Florida’s 20th Congressional District finds Democratic candidates with substantial advantages over a generic Republican opponent. The sample consisted of 65% Democrats, with the remaining 35% split between Republicans and voters identifying as No Party/Other. Crosstabs by party reflect proportional allocations based on historical voting behavior in comparable federal elections within the district.
General Election — Generic Party Ballot
Overall Ballot
- Generic Democrat— 74%
- Generic Republican— 26%
Party Crosstabs (Modeled on Historic Voting Patterns)
| Party ID | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican |
| Democrats (65%) | 96% | 4% |
| Republicans (≈25%) | 8% | 92% |
| No Party/Other (≈10%) | 62% | 38% |
Modeled results reflect strong partisan consolidation with independents favoring the Democratic candidate consistent with district performance history.
Named Candidate Matchups
Elijah Manley vs. Generic Republican
Overall:
- Elijah Manley— 79%
- Generic Republican— 21%
Party Crosstabs
| Party ID | Manley | Generic Republican |
| Democrats | 98% | 2% |
| Republicans | 10% | 90% |
| No Party/Other | 74% | 26% |
Manley demonstrates near-universal Democratic consolidation and significant independent crossover support.
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick vs. Generic Republican
Overall:
- Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick— 69%
- Generic Republican— 31%
Party Crosstabs
| Party ID | Cherfilus-McCormick | Generic Republican |
| Democrats | 94% | 6% |
| Republicans | 6% | 94% |
| No Party/Other | 54% | 46% |
Cherfilus-McCormick consolidates the Democratic base while performing competitively among independent voters.
Dale Holness vs. Generic Republican
Overall:
- Dale Holness— 74%
- Generic Republican— 26%
Party Crosstabs
| Party ID | Holness | Generic Republican |
| Democrats | 95% | 5% |
| Republicans | 7% | 93% |
| No Party/Other | 64% | 36% |
Holness performs strongly among Democratic voters and maintains a clear advantage among independents.
Key Findings
- Democrats represent a clear majority (65%) of the modeled general election electorate.
• All tested Democratic candidates show overwhelming support within their party.
• Independent/No Party voters lean Democratic across ballot tests, consistent with district-wide historical performance.
• Elijah Manley posts the strongest overall performance due to higher modeled independent crossover support.
Methodology
This Listener Group survey was conducted among 600 likely general election voters in Florida’s congressional district. The study was conducted between February 27-March 2, 2026 with a MOE of +/- 3.5%. The electorate model consists of 65% Democrats, approximately 25% Republicans, and approximately 10% No Party/Other voters. Crosstabs are proportionally modeled using historic partisan voting behavior in comparable federal elections within the district.
About Listener Group
Listener Group, a division of Palafox Productions and Promotions, Inc, operates public opinion research specializing in political polling and audience insights. The organization conducts surveys to gauge voter sentiment across key electoral contests and demographic segments for the past 25 years.
Media Contact:
Greg Fink, CEO
Palafox Productions
info@palafoxproductions.com
(386) 569-7028