Palm Coast, FL — June 4, 2026 — A new Listener Group survey conducted between May 29 and June 1, 2026, among 500 likely Democratic primary voters in Florida’s 20th Congressional District shows a dramatic shift in voter preferences as respondents receive additional information about the candidates. While Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz begins the race with a substantial lead on the initial ballot, Elijah Manley emerges as the frontrunner on the final ballot after voters are exposed to additional information about the candidates.
The survey measured voter sentiment through an initial ballot, informed ballot, final ballot, favorability testing, and head-to-head candidate matchups, allowing researchers to evaluate how opinions evolve as voters become more familiar with the candidates and campaign messages.
Initial Democratic Primary Ballot
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Debbie Wasserman Schultz | 39% |
| Elijah Manley | 21% |
| Dale Holness | 15% |
| Luther “Uncle Luke” Campbell | 2% |
| Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick | 3% |
| Maisha Williams | 1% |
| Undecided | 19% |
The initial ballot reflects the significant name-recognition advantage held by Wasserman Schultz, while Manley begins as the clear second choice and nearly one-in-five voters remain undecided.
Informed Democratic Primary Ballot
| Candidate | Support |
| Debbie Wasserman Schultz | 33% |
| Elijah Manley | 29% |
| Dale Holness | 20% |
| Luther “Uncle Luke” Campbell | 5% |
| Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick | 2% |
| Maisha Williams | 1% |
| Undecided | 10% |
The informed ballot shows Manley gaining eight percentage points while Wasserman Schultz loses six points, indicating substantial movement among voters once additional information is introduced.
Final Democratic Primary Ballot
| Candidate | Support |
| Elijah Manley | 36% |
| Debbie Wasserman Schultz | 27% |
| Dale Holness | 19% |
| Luther “Uncle Luke” Campbell | 7% |
| Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick | 1% |
| Maisha Williams | 1% |
| Undecided | 9% |
The final ballot demonstrates a significant shift in the race, with Manley moving from an 18-point deficit on the initial ballot to a 9-point lead on the final ballot.
Head-to-Head Democratic Primary Matchups
The survey also tested one-on-one Democratic primary contests between Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz and several potential challengers.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz vs. Elijah Manley
| Candidate | Support |
| Elijah Manley | 63% |
| Debbie Wasserman Schultz | 37% |
Debbie Wasserman Schultz vs. Dale Holness
| Candidate | Support |
| Dale Holness | 61% |
| Debbie Wasserman Schultz | 39% |
Debbie Wasserman Schultz vs. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick
| Candidate | Support |
| Debbie Wasserman Schultz | 55% |
| Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick | 45% |
Debbie Wasserman Schultz vs. Luther “Uncle Luke” Campbell
| Candidate | Support |
| Luther “Uncle Luke” Campbell | 62% |
| Debbie Wasserman Schultz | 38% |
The head-to-head testing indicates that Democratic voters strongly favor several alternative candidates when presented with a direct choice. Elijah Manley posts the strongest performance against Wasserman Schultz, followed closely by Luther Campbell and Dale Holness.
Favorability Among Black Democratic Voters
| Candidate | Favorable | Unfavorable | No Opinion |
| Debbie Wasserman Schultz | 41% | 47% | 12% |
| Elijah Manley | 54% | 7% | 39% |
| Dale Holness | 57% | 25% | 18% |
Both Manley and Holness maintain positive favorability ratings among Black voters, while Wasserman Schultz posts a net negative favorability rating within this key Democratic voting bloc.
Final Ballot Among White Democratic Voters
| Candidate | Support |
| Debbie Wasserman Schultz | 42% |
| Elijah Manley | 35% |
| Dale Holness | 12% |
| Luther “Uncle Luke” Campbell | 4% |
| Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick | 1% |
| Maisha Williams | 1% |
| Undecided | 5% |
These findings suggest Wasserman Schultz’s remaining strength is concentrated among White Democratic voters, while Manley performs substantially better among Black voters and gains support as voters receive additional information during the survey process.
Key Findings
• Elijah Manley gains 15 percentage points between the initial and final ballots.
• Debbie Wasserman Schultz declines 12 percentage points between the initial and final ballots.
• Elijah Manley defeats Debbie Wasserman Schultz 63% to 37% in a head-to-head matchup.
• Dale Holness defeats Debbie Wasserman Schultz 61% to 39% in a head-to-head matchup.
• Luther “Uncle Luke” Campbell defeats Debbie Wasserman Schultz 62% to 38% in a head-to-head matchup.
• Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick trails Wasserman Schultz by a narrower 55% to 45% margin.
• Undecided voters decline from 19% on the initial ballot to just 9% on the final ballot.
• Elijah Manley records the strongest net favorability rating among Black voters tested.
• White Democratic voters remain more supportive of Wasserman Schultz, while Black Democratic voters favor Manley and Holness by significant margins.
Methodology
This Listener Group survey was conducted between May 29, 2026, and June 1, 2026, among 500 likely Democratic primary voters in Florida’s 20th Congressional District. Respondents were interviewed using a structured questionnaire that included initial ballot testing, informed ballot testing, final ballot testing, demographic analysis, favorability measurements, and head-to-head candidate matchups.
The survey carries a margin of error of ±4.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
About Listener Group
Listener Group is a public opinion research and strategic communications division of Palafox Productions and Promotions, Inc., specializing in voter sentiment research, political polling, public affairs studies, and strategic communications. The organization conducts surveys throughout Florida and across the nation to measure public opinion and identify emerging political trends.
Website: www.palafoxproductions.com
Media Contact
Greg Fink
Listener Group
A Division of Palafox Productions and Promotions, Inc.
Email: info@palafoxproductions.com
Website: www.palafoxproductions.com