New Poll Shows Tight Florida Governor Race, Moody Advantage in Senate, and Amendment 3 Facing Uphill Battle
PALM COAST, Fla. — A new survey of 500 likely Florida voters conducted by Political Matrix and The Listener Group, divisions of Palafox Media Network, finds the race for Governor essentially tied among decided voters, a clearer advantage for U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody in the special Senate election, and significant uncertainty surrounding Amendment 3. The proposed homestead exemption expansion requires 60 percent support to pass and currently sits wellbelow that threshold. The study was conducted between October 26-28, 2026.
Governor’s Race: Statistical Dead Heat Among Decided Voters
In the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis, Republican Byron Donalds holds a narrow 40.3 percent to 38.8 percent lead over Democrat David Jolly among all respondents, with 20.9 percent undecided. Among those who have made a choice, Donalds leads 50.9 percent to 49.1 percent.
Party registration crosstabs show Donalds winning 56.2 percent of Republicans (with 15.6 percent undecided), while Jolly takes 50.0 percent of Democrats (26.7 percent undecided). No-party-affiliation voters are evenly split at 40 percent for each candidate.
“The numbers show a real opportunity for Democrats,” said John Wyche, MBA, Director of Operations — Democratic Campaigns for Palafox Media Network. “David Jolly is within striking distance, and with more than a quarter ofDemocrats still undecided, the path to an upset is clear if we can convert those voters and hold our own among independents in the final days.”
U.S. Senate Special Election: Moody Holds Clearer Edge
In the special election to fill the remainder of former Sen. Marco Rubio’s term, Republican Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon 41.8 percent to 35.8 percent, with 22.4 percent undecided. Among decided voters, Moody’s advantage is 53.8 percent to 46.2 percent.
Moody receives 62.5 percent of Republican support and 60.0 percent of NPA voters. Nixon leads among Democrats at 43.3 percent, though 40.0 percent of Democrats remain undecided.
“Republicans are in a strong position heading into the final stretch,” said Scott Miller, Executive Producer and Strategy at Palafox Media Network. “Ashley Moody’s lead reflects solid support among Republicans and independents. The key now is turnout and locking down the remaining undecideds who lean our way on the issues that matter most to Florida families.”
Amendment 3: High Undecided Share and Support Far Below 60 Percent Threshold
Amendment 3, which would raise the non-school homestead exemption to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 (alongwith other property tax changes including a lower assessment cap on non-homestead properties), receives 32.8 percent support overall, with 31.3 percent opposed and a high 35.8 percent undecided. Among decided voters, Yes leads 51.2 percent to 48.8 percent—well short of the 60 percent required for passage.
Republicans lean toward Yes (40.6 percent Yes, 15.6 percent No, 43.8 percent undecided), while Democrats lean No (26.7 percent Yes, 46.7 percent No). NPA voters also tilt No (20.0 percent Yes, 40.0 percent No).
“These results underscore how fluid the electorate remains with Election Day just days away,” said Greg Fink, CEO and Founder of Palafox Productions and Promotions and overall strategist for Political Matrix and The Listener Group. “Undecided voters will play a decisive role across all three contests, particularly on Amendment 3 where more than one-third of likely voters have yet to make up their minds. Our job is to give campaigns accurate data so they can make informed decisions—not tell them what they want to hear.”
Methodology
These results describe 500 recorded responses from likely Florida voters. The MOE is +/- 4.38%.
Media Contact:
Greg Fink. CEO and Founder, Palafox Media Network, Inc. / Political Matrix / The Listener Group 386.569.7028
40 Rolling Sands Drive, Palm Coast, FL 32164
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